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My Independent Odds Tissue

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My Independent Odds Tissue

Post by Proprice on Wed Jul 14, 2010 3:47 pm

Lingfield 4.30 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)



A class 3 3yo+ stakes over 8 furlongs on the AW polytrack. I am not a particular fan of AW as to me it’s racing by numbers, fine for the connections and bookmakers though. Not a lot of speed but the proven AW runners are No’s 8, 4, 1 and OR 3, 10, 4.



1. 13/2 (8/1) Benandonner, LTO keen tracked led pushed headed 2/7 -.5L, no wins for this yard.

2. Non-runner

3. 4/1 (14/1) Den’s Gift, C&D* Draw? LTO led headed stayed on weakened 8/15 -7L, all 4 wins on AW.

4. 66/1 (14/1), course? Form?

5. 10/1 (41/1), form? Class? Draw? Teal/Keniry 3rd best combo.

6. 9/2 (9/1) Jake The Snake, C&D* LTO switched held up headway stayed on strong run finished well just failed 2/14 –shd, goes well on AW.

7. 13/1 (12/1) C&D* Form? Best/Drowne 2nd best combo.

8. 10/1 (14/1), C&D*

9. 33/1 (16/1), D? Draw?

10. 4/1 (7/2) Bintalwaadi, filly versus males? C&D* LTO led ridden headed 2/6 -1.75L, possibly more to come. Dulop/O’Shea best combo.



Betting: Bintalwaadi will be well fancied and short-priced and I am not certain she is quick enough even with a good draw. The answer for me is when in doubt don’t bet it’s the punter’s best weapon against the layers.

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Re: My Independent Odds Tissue

Post by Dessie89 on Wed Jul 14, 2010 4:28 pm

Cheers Proprice
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Re: My Independent Odds Tissue

Post by Jack on Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:06 pm

Proprice wrote:Lingfield 4.30 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)



A class 3 3yo+ stakes over 8 furlongs on the AW polytrack. I am not a particular fan of AW as to me it’s racing by numbers, fine for the connections and bookmakers though. Not a lot of speed but the proven AW runners are No’s 8, 4, 1 and OR 3, 10, 4.



1. 13/2 (8/1) Benandonner, LTO keen tracked led pushed headed 2/7 -.5L, no wins for this yard.

2. Non-runner

3. 4/1 (14/1) Den’s Gift, C&D* Draw? LTO led headed stayed on weakened 8/15 -7L, all 4 wins on AW.

4. 66/1 (14/1), course? Form?

5. 10/1 (41/1), form? Class? Draw? Teal/Keniry 3rd best combo.

6. 9/2 (9/1) Jake The Snake, C&D* LTO switched held up headway stayed on strong run finished well just failed 2/14 –shd, goes well on AW.

7. 13/1 (12/1) C&D* Form? Best/Drowne 2nd best combo.

8. 10/1 (14/1), C&D*

9. 33/1 (16/1), D? Draw?

10. 4/1 (7/2) Bintalwaadi, filly versus males? C&D* LTO led ridden headed 2/6 -1.75L, possibly more to come. Dulop/O’Shea best combo.



Betting: Bintalwaadi will be well fancied and short-priced and I am not certain she is quick enough even with a good draw. The answer for me is when in doubt don’t bet it’s the punter’s best weapon against the layers.
How come you know so much Proprice? How long you been betting for?
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Re: My Independent Odds Tissue

Post by Col on Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:15 pm

Very good post proprice

I take it you have been in the Betting business before you retired.

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Reply to queries

Post by traider on Fri Jul 16, 2010 2:19 pm

Col & Jack

Been betting since 1951 when I was 15yrs old and an apprentice pattern card maker in the textile industry.
I have never had any connection with bookmaking always being on the other side of the fence.

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Newbury 4.55

Post by traider on Fri Jul 16, 2010 5:25 pm

Newbury 4.55 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)



A class 3 3yo+ hcap over 10 furlongs on changing going GS. Both RPR and Formast rate the field close whilst I have Con Artist quite well ahead. No outstanding speed runners but those proven are No’s 8, 3, 2 and on OR 1, 2, 3. Those towards the bottom of the card have a weight advantage.



1. 33/1 (25/1), off track 135?

2. 13/1 (16/1)

3. 11/1 (18/1), weight? D?

4. 11/1 (13/2), class? Cumani/Fallon 3rd best combo)

5. 100/1 (16/1) course? D?

6. 17/2 (7/2) Emerging Artist, LTO tracked led ridden headed not quicken no chance with winner 2/7 -5L, consistent. Johnston/Dettori 2nd best combo.

7. 22/1 (41/1), C&D* Offtrack 720? Form? Class?

8. 18/1 (49/1), off track 64?

9. 18/1 (20/1)

10. 10/1 (14/1) Changing The Guard, LTO chased ridden weakened 5/9 -7L, was progressive last season.

11. 18/1 (33/1), class?

12. 9/2 (9/2) Con Artist, LTO made all steady pace quickened won 1/5 +.75L, useful.

13. 7/1 (8/1) Grey Bunting, course? LTO held up pushed headway went 2nd always held 2/6 -1L, more needed.



Betting: As far as I am concerned Con Artist has to be considered and Emerging Artist will not be a value bet.

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